Are people getting smarter?

According the the mysterious “Flynn Effect”, something is happening that shouldn’t be happening. Each generation is getting slightly smarter than previous generations, as measured by IQ.

The Flynn effect is a perplexing phenomenon for those who believe that IQ tests represent a true measure of human intelligence, as it would suggest that people today are in general considerably more intelligent than those of previous generations. Flynn himself does not believe this to be the case. It is conceivable that something about modern society is responsible, e.g the greater need for abstract thinking, presence of computers, more visually-oriented culture.

IQ scores are re-normalized periodically, such that the average score is reset to 100.

Flynn effect – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

This effect has been under much doubt within the scientific community. That doubt, after further research, has pretty much evaporated. Researchers found that the effect not only exists, but it is accelerating.

The trend Flynn discovered in the mid-’80s has been investigated extensively, and there’s little doubt he’s right. In fact, the Flynn effect is accelerating. US test takers gained 17 IQ points between 1947 and 2001. The annual gain from 1947 through 1972 was 0.31 IQ point, but by the ’90s it had crept up to 0.36.

Wired 13.05: Dome Improvement

Theories exist as to why this is happening. One is that our diets have supposedly have improved, causing a gain in IQ. I don’t think diets have improved that much in the 20th century. We do seem to eat more, but eating more is probably not the cause.

My guess is that modern society, with all the gadgets we deal with, as well has video games ‚Äì are re-wiring our brains. Today, building a mental model of how a video game works, as well as working out spatial puzzles in those games  –  are things that humans did not spend hours doing decades ago.

I think that the complexity of the world is increasing, and people today are possibly using their brain in different ways. Think about the larger number of technological interfaces human minds need to work through in modern times, just to complete what we consider basic daily tasks.

We are dealing with logical interfaces to cell phones, TV remotes, gaming systems, new computer systems, website interfaces, and even computer interfaces in our cars. Our brains seem to be getting a good workout in logic and spatial skills just because of our more complex environment. With a more computerized environment, interfacing with computers probably gives kids more and more of the skills that would test well on an IQ test.

Virtual product placement

With the advent to DVRs like Tivo, consumers have been fast forwarding through commercials. Tomorrow’s Trends has identified the ‚Äúproblem‚Äù and some guesses at what marketer’s will do to counter this loss in advertising eyeballs. One thing marketer‚Äôs are doing is "product placement".

Product placement is where advertisers make their product actually part of a scene or part of the story. This way you can’t fast forward, if you want to watch your show, you will automatically get exposed to product placement.

Then came the technologists method of product placement.

Product placements can now be purchased and inserted into scenes after the show has been produced, using technology.

When a scene from the CBS TV show “Numbers” was filmed there was nothing on the table. In post-production, presto, a steaming cup of Campbell’s soup is added.

Same with an episode of “Still Standing.” Originally nothing in the shot, and afterwards a box of Cheeze-Its appears.

The process is called digital brand integration and it is the newest form of product placement developed by a company called Marathon Ventures.

“We can place a product, virtually any size, in almost any location. It really depends on what the program and the video in each individual episode provides in terms of a logical or contextual background,” said the company’s president, David Brenner.

Product placement goes digital, gets lucrative – CNBC TV – MSNBC.com.

Don't Panic

What is more dangerous?  A gun or your pool?

Better think carefully. You are much more likely to die from drowning or from just walking down the street than from an accidental gun incident.

Risk statistics always show us that emotion is not a useful way to make decisions – especially concerning risk.

Be careful out there– but your appendix is more likely to kill you than al-Qaida is.

Wired compiled the number of incidents of various ways that people peish and copiled them into a summary. This data is based on the number of mortalities in each category throughout the 11-year period spanning 1995 through 2005 (extrapolated from best available data).

S E V E R E
Driving off the road: 254,419
Falling: 146,542
Accidental poisoning: 140,327

H I G H
Dying from work: 59,730
Walking down the street: 52,000.
Accidentally drowning: 38,302

E L E V A T E D
Killed by the flu: 19,415
Dying from a hernia: 16,742

G U A R D E D
Accidental firing of a gun: 8,536
Electrocution: 5,171

L O W
Being shot by law enforcement: 3,949
Terrorism: 3147
Carbon monoxide in products: 1,554

Wired News: One Million Ways to Die.

Sources: National Highway and Safety Agency (.pdf), National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 50, No. 15 (09/16/2002) (.pdf), US Consumer Product Safety Commission, the Insurance Information Institute.

Trends: Growing Single Population

According to American statistics compiled by the census bureau, Americans are waiting a lot longer to marry than in the past. Also, more people are living alone.

Actually, if you look at first world countries, several trends emerge. People are having fewer (or no) children, and also people are staying single longer.

The median age of first marriage was 27.1 years for men and 25.8 years for women last year, up from 23.2 and 20.8 years, respectively, 25 years earlier, according to new information on America’s families and households released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

According to Families and Living Arrangements: 2005, the proportion of households consisting of one person living alone increased from 17 percent in 1970 to 26 percent in 2005. In 2005, 10 percent of the nation’s households contained five or more people, down from 21 percent in 1970. During the same time period, average household size declined from 3.14 to 2.57 people.

The tabulations also show 67 percent of the nation’s 73.5 million children under 18 lived with two married parents in 2005. About 20.7 million children under 18 lived with one parent; 17.2 million with their mother and 3.5 million with their father.

Other highlights:

* The majority of men and women in 2005 had been married by the time they were 30 to 34 years old (72 percent); and among men and women ages 65 and over, 96 percent had been married.
* The United States had an estimated 5.8 million “stay-at-home” parents: 5.6 million moms and 143,000 dads.
* About 8 percent of all children (6.1 million) lived in a household that included a grandparent.
* Among 12.8 million children ages 15 to 17, about 2.4 million were working and, of these, 2.2 million worked part time.

The table package includes detailed information at the national level about the characteristics of children, husbands and wives, unmarried couples, households and family groups. Many of the tables have data by race and Hispanic origin.

The data are from the 2005 Current Population Surveys (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC). The ASEC supplement to the CPS is conducted in February, March and April at about 100,000 addresses nationwide.

Statistics from sample surveys are subject to sampling and nonsampling error.

US Census Press Releases.

Electronic Ink Demonstration

Here is a demonstration of a new kind of “e-Ink” flexible display from Philips that can be rolled up.

Why would you want to do that?

The current screen problems with small devices now is that the screen must be about the size of the device. Electronic ink devices will have screens that are so thin, that you would just unroll or open them like paper to a decent size. You could then use the screen on the device as easily as a decent sized piece of paper. When you are done, just roll it back up into a small size.

A store without employees

This store has no employees. Get & Go has created a convenient space where there are vending machines of all types of sodas, foods, and snacks, as well as an ATM.

With new Kiosk technologies other items could be added, like DVD rentals and lottery tickets.

The profit margins are great:

“When you talk about margins, right now across the board, we’re running at 60-62 percent profit margins,” Parsons said, comparing them to the 30-40 percent margins of a regular c-store.

The employee-free c-store | Kiosk Marketplace.

There are definite opportunities in the future, to automate in the convenience store space.

Google Car

Google formed a for-profit charity.

The ambitious founders of Google, the popular search engine company, have set up a philanthropy, giving it seed money of about $1 billion and a mandate to tackle poverty, disease and global warming.

But unlike most charities, this one will be for-profit, allowing it to fund start-up companies, form partnerships with venture capitalists and even lobby Congress. It will also pay taxes.

Philanthropy Googles Way: Not the Usual – New York Times.

That is pretty interesting. But, they also dicsussed in the NYT that they were planning on researching creating a car that gets 100 mpg.

The philanthropy is consulting with hybrid-engine scientists and auto makers, and has arranged for the purchase of a small fleet of cars with plans to convert the engines so that their gas mileage exceeds 100 miles per gallon. The goal of the project is to reduce dependence on oil while alleviating the effects of global warming.

Philanthropy Googles Way: Not the Usual – New York Times.

Flexcar

Flexcar is not a standard car rental service. It is a car sharing service. It is a more flexible way to rent a car.

You share access to hundreds of Flexcar vehicles, of various makes and models, with other Flexcar members. You reserve a car so it’s there when you need it. You drive – to a meeting, a doctor’s appointment, run errands, move into a new apartment, hit the lumber yard – as if it were your own car. Then, when you’re done, you return it to its home parking space, lock it, and go.

Flexcar

Ouch

This does not sound good.

Segway Inc. is recalling all 23,500 of the self-balancing scooters it has shipped to date because of a software glitch that can make its wheels unexpectedly reverse direction, causing riders to fall off.

WSJ.com – Software Glitch Prompts Recall of Segway Scooters.

Focus on Freedom

It seems obvious that “if you give a man a fish, he eats for a day, if you teach a man to fish, he eats for a lifetime”. But, that is not how our foreign aid is appropriated.

"The demand for foreign aid is typically made in the absence of any empirical evidence that it leads to benefits for recipient nations and without asking whether there are better approaches to poverty reduction for the international community to support," Gwartney said. "This research suggests that economic freedom, rather than foreign aid, has a powerful positive impact and is a better approach."

Easterly demonstrates that foreign aid has no positive impact on economic growth in the poorest nations. His research shows that economic freedom can help lift nations out of poverty. Once economic freedom is taken into account, poor nations, far from being caught in a perpetual state of poverty, grow faster than rich nations.

"The bottom line is that the quality of life is higher for those who reside in economies that are more free," Gwartney said. "Free economies grow faster, have a cleaner environment, a lower infant mortality rate and less political corruption. The per capita gross domestic product is about 10 times the income level of the least free quartile. Further, the life expectancy of the freest group is 77 years, compared to 52 years in the least free group."

Florida State University

[From BusinessPundit]